Listen to S&P Global’s 2026 Chemical Market Outlook Here:
Global volatility, trade shifts, and new government policies are reshaping the chemical industry for 2026. Industry leaders Olivier Maronneaud and Pooja Jain from S&P Global join host Victoria Meyer to share S&P’s economic outlook and discuss supply-driven cycles, plant closures, and rising government intervention. They explore how North America, Europe, and Asia are responding to persistent oversupply and evolving plastics and methanol markets, with a look at where future investments may land after today’s capacity wave.
The episode covers the urgent need for flexibility—addressing tariffs, changing trade patterns, rationalization, and the ongoing race for scale. The speakers also weigh in on the slowdown in sustainability efforts, regional risks and opportunities, and key market indicators for 2026. Essential listening for chemical leaders navigating strategy, investment, and fast-moving policy changes.
Victoria, Olivier, and Pooja explore the following topics:
- 2026 Outlook: S&P Global’s view on global economic impact to chemicals
- How producers are responding to oversupply
- Tariffs and new policies are redrawing global chemical trade routes.
- How chemical investment strategies are changing
- Current state of circularity and sustainability
Killer Quote: “This investment wave has a center point in China. It’s originating from China. But what happens in China doesn’t stay in China. It kind of disrupts everywhere.” -Pooja Jain
Learn About S&P Global’s 2026 Chemical Market Outlook on Youtube Here:
How Energy and Geopolitics Influence Chemical Industry Outcomes in 2026
As 2026 unfolds, chemical industry professionals face a market landscape that’s markedly different from the one just a few years ago. On this episode of The Chemical Show, Victoria Meyer welcomed S&P Global’s Olivier Maronneaud, an executive director for chemical research, and Pooja Jain, a plastics market insights expert, to unpack the macroeconomic outlook, supply-demand dynamics, regional strategies, and the shifting importance of circularity and sustainability. Their conversation explores S&P Global’s 2026 chemical market outlook, not just what’s coming, but how business leaders must adjust to thrive as the ground shifts beneath them.
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Macroeconomic Steadiness vs. Industry Volatility
The discussion kicks off with a look at broad economic trends. According to Olivier, S&P Global projects resilient macroeconomic growth in 2025 and 2026—with global GDP growth around 2.7-2.8%. China and the US show stability, while Europe’s growth is described as “relatively good by European standards,” though still below global averages.
However, Victoria notes that this resilience is not equally felt within chemicals. Olivier agrees: “You should look at it from a demand side,” citing three key drivers, construction, automotive, and general consumption. These sectors aren’t mirroring the bullish macro numbers. Construction is particularly weak in China and Europe, and automotive faces uncertainty amid tariffs and shifting policies, including the push for electric vehicles.
What’s notable is that much of the industry’s pain is not purely demand-driven, but supply-driven. Oversupply and volatility leave companies in a cycle that isn’t likely to resolve quickly.
Trade Tensions and Government Intervention Shape New Realities
Expanding on the supply story, Pooja addresses polymers and plastics. Two standout trends emerge as we head into 2026: adapting to new trade realities and increased government intervention.
The ongoing trade tussle between the US and China, a key corridor for feedstocks and polymers, has forced economies to rethink trade strategies, look inward, and forge new alliances. Pooja expects more free trade agreements (FTAs) between Asian economies, adding complexity to trade flows and regional competition.
Government support, whether through financial incentives or policy revisions (like those seen in Korea) is also rising. Intervention could come as stimulus plans, incentives for rationalization, or measures to protect domestic markets from cheap imports. These shifts mean companies must navigate a landscape shaped as much by public policy as by market forces.
Regional Differences and the Race for Scale
Europe’s challenges are particularly acute. As Olivier explains, asset closures and divestitures aren’t just about poor-performing plants, they often reflect global companies optimizing portfolios, with European assets at risk due to relative competitiveness, feedstock constraints, and regulatory uncertainty.
Meanwhile, North America and the Middle East remain favored regions for new investment, leveraging cost-competitive feedstocks to capture export markets. Asia, especially China and India, continues to invest largely to serve domestic demand. But for regions lacking market growth or competitive feedstocks, like Europe and Northeast Asia, consolidation and asset rationalization may be the only viable strategies ahead.
Despite these influences, the race for scale hasn’t slowed. Mega-site investments, particularly in ethylene and polyethylene, remain attractive for their operational efficiencies and margin advantages, though these are being steadily eroded as global competition intensifies.
Sustainability and Circularity Lose Momentum… For Now
Just a few years ago, circularity and sustainability were at the top of industry agendas. Today, with oversupply and falling virgin polymer prices, investment and momentum in circularity have faded. Regulation varies by region, and without firm, comprehensive frameworks, especially in Europe, even promising projects face delays or cancellations.
As Olivier points out, technological progress is slower and more expensive than hoped. While major brands still push recycled content targets, many have postponed ambitious 2025 goals to 2030. One notable shift is material de-selection, as consumer brands move away from plastics toward alternatives like cardboard, threatening further demand contraction for plastics unless innovation catches up.
The Watch List for 2026
Looking ahead, Pooja names geopolitics and tariffs as the leading indicators to monitor, while Olivier highlights the energy market, particularly the interplay between oil and gas prices, as key to competitiveness. Both agree that adaptation, flexibility, and careful strategy will be critical amid ongoing uncertainty.
The chemical industry’s future remains highly dynamic. As trade patterns realign, regional assets are reassessed, and the push for sustainability faces headwinds, leaders must focus on operational agility, watch global signals, and keep innovating. While recovery may be distant, those who adapt quickly to “the new rules” stand the best chance of success as market forces continue to reshape the sector.
For more in-depth discussion, tune in to The Chemical Show, or follow industry experts’ sessions at conferences like the World Petrochemical Conference.
About Pooja and Olivier:
Pooja Jain, Senior Principal Analyst
Pooja Jain is a Polymer Subject Matter Expert (SME) at S&P Global Energy division in Gurgaon, India. With a background in chemical engineering, she brings over 14 years of experience in the refinery and petrochemical sectors. Pooja began her career as a production engineer at Indian Oil Corporation, working at one of India”s largest petrochemical complexes. She then transitioned into project management, contributing to several large-scale grassroots and revamp petrochemical projects. After nearly six years in the field, Pooja moved into consulting, joining KPMG as a strategy consultant in the Energy, Natural Resources, and Chemicals (ENR) sector. Her diverse career has given her a well-rounded perspective on both the operational and strategic aspects of the energy industry.
Olivier Maronneaud, Director – Chemical Consulting
Olivier is a Director in the chemical consulting team in London, UK
Olivier has 10+ years of chemical industry background starting his career as product manager for General Purpose PVC at the French chemical producer Arkema. Olivier then joined the chemical research team at S&P Global Energy, where he was in charge of the medium and long term analysis for methanol and the acetyls value chain. Since 2017, Olivier is part of the chemical consulting team where he is currently a Director, managing single client projects across the wider chemical industry. His expertise spans from the vinyls and syngas value chains to wider issues affecting the chemical industry such as plastic recycling (chemical recycling) with a focus on the European and CIS regions.